更关键的，当时全世界都没有料到华沙条约和苏联本身会很快解体。戈尔巴乔夫本人对苏联前景持乐观状态。华沙条约成员国没有一个认为自己会退出华约，更不用提将来还能加入北约，这是做梦都不敢想的。实际上第一次提到和北约“加强关系”的是当时的匈牙利外长，时间是在贝克和戈尔巴乔夫会谈后两周。而他的意思也不是退出华约再加入北约，而只是留在华约的同时和北约加强联系，认为这样的好处是最后或许能形成一个“泛欧安全体系”。而他的这个观点，在当时不只是惊世骇俗，干脆大家都认为他不可能是认真的，肯定只是为一个月之后的议会选举博眼球罢了。
前苏联领袖戈尔巴乔夫
要说美国利用北约不向前华约国家扩充的承诺来向苏联交换德国统一，至少也得苏联在那时意识到了居然还能有这样的可能性！但那时甭说苏联，全世界谁都没有意识到这一点。
这些论据已经把问题说的很明白了。然后时间转到2014年，戈尔巴乔夫本人在一次采访中，亲自证实了这一点。下面就是他和“Russia Beyond”记者对谈的相关段落和翻译：
RBTH: One of the key issues that has arisen in connection with the events in Ukraine is NATO expansion into the East. Do you get the feeling that your Western partners lied to you when they were developing their future plans in Eastern Europe? Why didn’t you insist that the promises made to you – particularly U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s promise that NATO would not expand into the East – be legally encoded? I will quote Baker: “NATO will not move one inch further east.”
记者：一个和乌克兰有关的关键问题是北约东扩。你有没有这种感觉：西方在形成他们在东欧的打算过程中对你撒了谎？你为什么不坚持要求兑现承诺，尤其是坚持美国前国务卿詹姆斯贝克将有关不向东方扩张的承诺形成有法律效力的文本？我来引用一下贝克，他说：北约不会向东方移动一英寸。
M.G.: The topic of “NATO expansion” was not discussed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in those years. I say this with full responsibility. Not a singe Eastern European country raised the issue, not even after the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist in 1991. Western leaders didn’t bring it up, either. Another issue we brought up was discussed: making sure that NATO’s military structures would not advance and that additional armed forces from the alliance would not be deployed on the territory of the then-GDR after German reunification. Baker’s statement, mentioned in your question, was made in that context. Kohl and [German Vice Chancellor Hans-Dietrich] Genscher talked about it.
戈尔巴乔夫：当年“北约扩张”的话题从未被讨论过，根本没人提起过这件事。我对我这个说法负完全责任。没有一个东欧国家提起过这事，甚至在华沙条约于1991年解散后都没有。西方领导人也没有提过。我们谈的是另外一点：在德国统一后，保证北约的军事设施和武装部队不向前东德地区部署。你刚才提到的贝克的声明，指的就是这一点。科尔（前德国总理）和甘舍尔（副总理）也谈过此事。
Everything that could have been and needed to be done to solidify that political obligation was done. And fulfilled. The agreement on a final settlement with Germany said that no new military structures would be created in the eastern part of the country; no additional troops would be deployed; no weapons of mass destruction would be placed there. It has been observed all these years. So don’t portray Gorbachev and the then-Soviet authorities as naïve people who were wrapped around the West’s finger. If there was naïveté, it was later, when the issue arose. Russia at first did not object.
为了保证该项政治义务的所有需要做和可以做的事情我们都做了。这项义务也被遵守了。最终协议规定，新的军事设施、新的部队以及大杀伤性武器都不能在东德地区部署。这些年该协议一直被遵守。所以，别把戈尔巴乔夫和当年其他苏联领导人当作被西方玩弄在股掌间的幼稚人物。如果有幼稚的问题，那也是在后来（北约东扩）被提出来时。一开始，俄国对此并没有反对。
The decision for the U.S. and its allies to expand NATO into the east was decisively made in 1993. I called this a big mistake from the very beginning. It was definitely a violation of the spirit of the statements and assurances made to us in 1990. With regards to Germany, they were legally enshrined and are being observed.
美国及其盟友真正决心把北约向东部扩张是在1993年。从一开始我就坚持这是个巨大的错误。这也绝对是对1990年向我们所作保证的精神的违背。但就对于德国的事情来说，这些保证有法律效力且被遵守了。